Learn The Pokerfather's simple mathematical trick to estimate
your Poker Hand Odds in 5 minutes...trust me it's worth it!
Introduction
Unless you are a talented mathematician, it is very hard to calculate
or estimate the precise odds of getting your drawing hand when
you're sitting at a poker table. This now leaves you with two
possible options: The first option is buy a calculator and calculate
all the odds for every single possible combination of draws out
there (A LOT!) and then memorize them. This way, no matter what
situation arises, you always will know the odds you face (no estimating
needed). However, most of us do not have a photographic memory,
and furthermore, there is an easier way!
The second option, and the easier option, is too learn The Poker
Father's simple trick for calculating / estimating your poker
odds.
How you ask?
The first thing you need to determine is how many "outs"
you currently have (an "out" is any card that gives
you a possible made hand). In order to do this, count the total
number of cards available that give the hand you are currently
drawing to. For example: lets say you hold an 'Qd' & '6d'
and on the flop a '10h', '7d', & '2d' turn up. You now have
a possible flush draw. There are thirteen diamonds in the deck
and you have four of them - the two that are in your hand plus
the two that flopped on the board. This now leaves a possible
nine diamond cards left in the deck, and you have two chances
to hit at least one of them (the river card and/or the turn card).
The Trick!
To figure out the estimated chance (in percent form) of hitting
your flush is to multiply your number of outs (9) by the number
of chances available to hit it (2). In the above example, you
have nine outs multiplied by two chances, which equals eighteen.
Then take that number (18) and multiply it by two, and then add
the percent sign. So, 36% of times you will make your flush. Not
bad considering the real calculated percent is 34.97%.
Another example using the same flop ('10h', '7d', & '2d'),
let's say you hold a '9c' & '8h'. In this case you have a
possible open-ended straight draw with eight outs to hit it (four
jacks and/or four sixes). You have a 32% chance of hitting your
straight. Again this is not a bad estimate given that the actual
percent is 31.46%. (32% = Eight outs times your two cards to come
(river card and turn card) equals sixteen outs. Then multiply
sixteen by two and you get your 32%)
Please Note
One important thing to remember is that the estimated percent
is ONLY the percent of you making the hand you are going for and
NOT the percent of times you will win the pot. You may have hit
your target hand but you could still lose. In the first example,
if a '10d' were to turn up you would hit your flush, BUT the '10d'
would pair up with the '10c' on the table and could give someone
a full house. You would then lose even though you hold a flush.
In the second example, say a 'Jd' and a'6d' were to come on the
river and the turn. You would have hit your straight, BUT, it
there is also a GOOD possibility that there is flush out there.
Again, even though you hit your hand, you could still lose to
the flush.
Knowing the estimated likelihood of making your hand is a good
starting point of becoming a better poker player. Furthermore,
you should not only be calculating your outs, but also your opponents
outs as well. Knowing your opponents possible hands (and percents)
will allow you to bet strategically.
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Please Also See:
Poker Tips - Poker
Lessons - Tournament Tips
- Poker Rules
Poker Starting Hands - Estimating
Odds - Poker Strategy
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